CBOE

What the Historical Beat Rate and Drift Mean for CBOE

CBOE has beaten earnings estimates in 7 of its last 8 reported quarters, an 88% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 3.8%. Those figures describe a stock where reported EPS has consistently cleared the market's real expectation. The average five-day price move after earnings across those same quarters is 3.91% to the upside, classified as an "up" drift. That does not guarantee the next report will follow the same path, but it frames how the stock has historically digested beats.

Looking at the trailing four reports shows the range hidden inside the averages. On 2026-05-01, actual EPS of $3.70 versus estimate $3.34 produced a 10.8% surprise and a 3.65% next-day gain, extending to 6.61% over five trading days. On 2025-10-31, actual EPS of $2.67 versus estimate $2.53 produced a 5.5% surprise but only a 0.52% next-day move, then a 4.47% five-day gain. On 2026-02-06, actual EPS of $3.06 versus estimate $2.94 produced a 4.1% surprise with a 2.75% next-day pop that faded to 0.64% over five days. The most recent report on 2026-07-31 delivered $3.56 actual versus $3.48 estimate, a 2.3% beat.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the October Report

The next scheduled report is 2026-10-30 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.38. With CBOE trading at $310.23 and RSI at 66.1, the stock is already above its 50-day EMA of $285.24 and near overbought territory. Options pricing around the event will reflect the gap between the implied move and the historical 3.91% five-day up drift. If implied volatility is pricing a move close to that drift level, the market may be treating this as a standard CBOE earnings event. If the options market is pricing a much larger or much smaller move, it signals a divergence between the official consensus and the unofficial consensus embedded in positioning.

Flow skew matters here as well. Heavy near-dated call buying ahead of 2026-10-30 would align with the up-drift history, while an expansion in put volume or put-call skew could indicate hedging against a break of the 88% beat streak. Traders can read the event risk by comparing the premium collected on straddles or strangles to the 0.52%-3.65% next-day range observed across the last four quarters.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined approach treats the 88% beat rate and 3.8% average surprise as context, not a forecast. The first item to watch is whether estimates have moved into the quarter for the 2026-10-30 report relative to the $3.56, $3.70, $3.06, and $2.67 actual EPS figures recorded from July 2025 through July 2026. The second item is implied volatility versus realized volatility around prior events. The third is price structure: a stock at $310.23 with RSI at 66.1 has less room to run before short-term mean reversion becomes a headwind, so a beat may need to be larger than the 2.3% seen last quarter to sustain the type of 6.61% five-day move observed in May.

Finally, watch the first day's reaction against history. The last four next-day moves were 3.65%, 2.75%, 0.52%, and not yet cited for July 2026. If CBOE gaps outside that cluster, it can signal that the market is repricing the stock rather than simply rewarding another beat.

For a deeper dive, readers should look at the full institutional verdict on our platform, which aggregates analyst revisions, options flow, and valuation context beyond the earnings history alone.