CBOE

How CBOE Has Traded Around Earnings

CBOE has delivered a strong historical record of outperformance versus published analyst estimates. Over the last eight reported quarters, the company beat expectations seven times, for a beat rate of 88%, with an average earnings surprise of 3.8%. The post-announcement drift has also skewed higher: across those same eight quarters, the average five-day price move in the trading days following earnings was a gain of 3.41%, classified as an "up" drift.

The four most recent reports reinforce that pattern. On May 1, 2026, CBOE reported actual EPS of $3.70 versus an estimate of $3.34, an upside surprise of 10.8%. The stock rose 3.65% the next session and 6.61% over the following five trading days. On February 6, 2026, actual EPS of $3.06 beat the $2.94 estimate by 4.1%, producing a 2.75% next-day gain and a 0.64% five-day drift. On October 31, 2025, actual EPS of $2.67 topped the $2.53 estimate by 5.5%; the next-day move was a more muted 0.52%, but the five-day drift extended to 4.47%. The August 1, 2025 report showed a $2.46 actual versus a $2.42 estimate, a 1.7% surprise, with a 1.24% next-day move and a 1.93% five-day move. Across all four quarters, both the next-day and five-day outcomes were positive, with the largest five-day payoff following the May 2026 report that produced the widest earnings surprise.

Options-Flow Considerations for the July 31, 2026 Report

CBOE is scheduled to report next on July 31, 2026, before the market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.41. Heading into that print, options pricing typically reflects elevated implied volatility, with the largest single-expiry positioning usually concentrated on the nearest weekly expiration. Traders can monitor whether the implied move priced into an at-the-money straddle is wider or narrower than the historical next-day range observed over the last four quarters, which spans from 0.52% on October 31, 2025, to 3.65% on May 1, 2026.

Current technical context includes a share price of $273.41, an RSI reading of 50.9, and a 50-day EMA of $281.90. Because price is below the 50-day EMA, directional flow into earnings may be more balanced than at prior reports where momentum was already positive. Skew, or the relative pricing of out-of-the-money puts versus calls, can indicate whether the market is positioning more aggressively for downside protection or upside continuation ahead of the announcement. Unusually heavy call skew into the event can signal the market's real expectation is leaning bullish, while put-heavy skew reflects defensive positioning, even when the headline consensus estimate remains $3.41.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined approach begins with comparing the reported EPS to the $3.41 estimate and cross-referencing the surprise magnitude against the historical 3.8% average. A beat near the recent historical average has commonly produced a positive next-day reaction, while a larger positive surprise, similar to the 10.8% beat on May 1, 2026, has historically corresponded with the strongest five-day follow-through. Traders also compare the initial pre-market or opening price action to the realized next-day moves of 3.65%, 2.75%, 0.52%, and 1.24% from the last four reports, watching whether the stock extends, reverses, or stalls after the gap.

Beyond the headline number, institutional flow and volume confirmation matter. A post-earnings move backed by above-average volume and a clear breakout above the 50-day EMA at $281.90, or rejection from it, carries more informational value than a low-volume drift. Given the five-day historical drift averages 3.41% higher, a trader studying multi-day continuation watches whether the stock holds its first hourly range on the announcement day and whether the cumulative day-two through day-five action follows the prior "up" drift pattern or breaks it. For a deeper dive into overall institutional positioning, sell-side revisions, and post-earnings technical levels, readers should review the full institutional verdict on CBOE.