CBOE

How CBOE Has Traded Around Earnings

CBOE has beaten visible analyst estimates in 7 of the last 8 reported quarters — an 88% beat rate — with an average earnings surprise of 3.8%. The stock has also printed a 5-day post-earnings drift of 3.41% on average across those quarters, classified as "up." That means the headline release has, on balance, been followed by additional buying pressure rather than an immediate reversal.

The four most recent reports reinforce the pattern. On 2026-05-01, CBOE reported $3.70 EPS against a $3.34 estimate, a 10.8% beat; the stock rose 3.65% the next session and 6.61% over the next five days. On 2026-02-06, EPS came in at $3.06 versus a $2.94 estimate (4.1% surprise), producing a 2.75% one-day move and a 0.64% five-day move. The 2025-10-31 report showed actual EPS of $2.67 against a $2.53 estimate (5.5% surprise), with a 0.52% next-day move and 4.47% over five days. The 2025-08-01 report delivered $2.46 versus a $2.42 estimate (1.7% surprise), with the stock moving 1.24% the next day and 1.93% over the following five days.

Options-Flow and Earnings-Date Positioning

The next scheduled report is 2026-07-31 before the open, with the visible consensus EPS estimate at $3.46. The gap between that estimate and CBOE's trailing average surprise of 3.8% is what the market's real expectation has to price. Because earnings events compress a large amount of potential price change into a single session, options implied volatility is bid up into the print and resets lower afterward, regardless of direction. A 5-day average drift of 3.41% means directional players are not just betting on the one-day gap; they are also positioning for a multi-day follow-through.

In options-flow terms, the setup is about the asymmetry between the official consensus of $3.46 and the unofficial consensus embedded in premium. Heavy call or put flow into the front month can pull dealer gamma exposure one way, which in turn can amplify or dampen moves around the 50-day EMA of $281.71. The current price of $285.07 sits just above that moving average, and the RSI reads 57.8. With the sector classified as Financial Services/Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges, sector-wide rates and volatility narratives can also feed into the pre-earnings volatility bid.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined trader treats the 88% beat rate and the 3.41% five-day up drift as base rates, not guarantees. The first check is the implied move priced by the at-the-money straddle for the expiry closest to 2026-07-31 versus the realised one-day moves cited above — 1.24%, 0.52%, 2.75%, and 3.65% over the last four reports. If the options market is pricing a move larger than those single-session outcomes, the burden of proof shifts to the bulls to deliver a blowout or to the bears to deliver a miss.

Second, watch how the stock behaves relative to the 50-day EMA of $281.71 leading into the 2026-07-31 report. A close below that level would put risk appetite in question; a hold above it keeps the post-earnings drift play structurally intact. Third, compare the consensus estimate of $3.46 with the unofficial consensus built into flow and positioning. The average surprise of 3.8% over the past eight quarters implies a beat of roughly $0.13 above the visible estimate; the stock's reaction will depend on whether the reported number clears the bar the market has actually set, not just the published number.

For a deeper dive into how sell-side models, options positioning, and institutional sentiment align around the 2026-07-31 report, review the full institutional verdict on CBOE.